Revolution or gradualism: optimal strategy of a leader

Description

A leader seeking to confront or overthrow an existing regime must decide, in each period, the nature of the opposition strategy to adopt. The leader can choose between non-political protest and political protest. While non-political protest does not directly threaten the survival of the regime, political protest poses a more direct challenge. The success or failure of both types of protest depends on the leader’s unobserved ability and the level of mass participation. We find that when the leader’s ability lies within an intermediate range, it is optimal to adopt a strategy of gradualism. In this strategy, the leader initially engages in non-political protest in order to favorably update public beliefs about their ability and to mobilize greater participation for a subsequent political protest. In contrast, when the leader’s ability is either very low or very high, it is optimal to initiate political protest in the first period.

Publication Date

1-1-2016

Keywords

Leadership

Conference

13th December, 2016, DSE Winter School

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