Revolution or gradualism: optimal strategy of a leader

Description

A leader who seeks to confront or overthrow the existing regime must decide, in each period, the nature of the opposition strategy to pursue. The opposition can take the form of either non-political protest or political protest. Non-political protests do not directly threaten the survival of the existing regime, whereas political protests pose a more direct challenge. The success or failure of both types of protests depends on the leader’s unobserved ability and the level of mass participation. We find that for intermediate levels of leader ability, it is optimal for the leader to adopt a strategy of gradualism—initially engaging in non-political protest to positively update beliefs about their ability and to mobilize greater participation for subsequent political protest. In contrast, when the leader’s ability is either very low or very high, it is optimal to initiate political protest in the first period.

Publication Date

1-1-2016

Keywords

Leadership

Conference

21st December, 2016, ISI Delhi Conference

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